GlossaryMVRV Z-Score
MVRV Z-Score
The MVRV Z-Score measures how far a coin's market value sits above or below its realized value, and puts that gap in relation to how much the market value has fluctuated so far. High values have historically coincided with overheated cycle tops, values below zero with phases in which the market traded below its holders' cost basis.
How to read it
The pane has lines at 0, 3 and 7.
| Range | Appearance | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 7 and above | red line, area between 7 and 12 shaded red | Market value far above the cost basis, historically close to cycle tops |
| above 0 and below 7 | line in the text color | Holders in profit on average, the line at 3 serves as a guide |
| 0 and below | turquoise line, area between −2 and 0 shaded turquoise | Market value below the realized value, historically at cycle bottoms |
- The Z-Score is a tool for long cycles on daily and weekly charts, not an entry signal for the day. The market can stay above 7 for weeks, and phases below zero often drag on for months.
- The 7 is a rule of thumb from earlier cycles. Because the standard deviation contains the entire history so far and grows with the market, a later top can miss the 7.
- The same lines and colors apply to Ethereum. The thresholds are known mainly from Bitcoin's history; for Ethereum, the series is shorter and the zones are less proven.
Good to know
- Only for Bitcoin and Ethereum. On other symbols, it reads “Only available for Bitcoin and Ethereum.”
- Daily values: On an hourly chart, the same value stands for a whole day; on weekly and monthly candles, the value from the first day of the candle.
- Realized cap also counts lost coins at their old price. They stay in the cost basis permanently without ever being sold.
- In the Style tab you choose the Appearance (default: line). Without Study colors, the chart draws the line in one color; the shaded areas stay.