GlossaryUS unemployment rate
US unemployment rate
The official US unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted and monthly, unchanged with one decimal place. The study also draws the two lines of the Sahm rule and overlays US recessions on the price, so you can see where the labor market stood before each downturn.
What you see
- Main line: the rate in percent, colored by zone.
- Gray line: the average of the last three months.
- Red line: the low of this three-month average in the twelve months before.
- Over the price: US recessions as dated by the NBER since 1953, as shaded areas.
How to read it
| Zone | Range |
|---|---|
| Tight labor market | below 4% |
| Near full employment | 4 to below 5% |
| Labor market loosening | 5 to below 6% |
| Recession level | from 6% |
Reference lines sit at 4 and 6%, and a faint middle line at 5.5%, the median since 1948. Below 4% the pane has a greenish background, above 6% a reddish one. The 4 and 6% boundaries are close to the quartiles of the series.
The level alone says little about the direction. What matters is whether the rate is rising: watch the Sahm lines or use the “mantacharts: UNRATE” study, which shows the same series year over year.
Good to know
- Each monthly value appears on the chart from the first of its reporting month, but it isn't published until the start of the following month. So the most recent month is often missing at the right edge, and in hindsight every number appears earlier than it was known.
- There is no value for October 2025; the survey was canceled because of the US shutdown. The three-month average has a gap there.
- Intended for daily and weekly charts. No settings other than the style.