GlossaryUS unemployment rate year over year
US unemployment rate year over year
The US unemployment rate year over year: by what percentage it sits above or below the value of the same month a year earlier. What counts here is not the level but the direction, because rising unemployment has regularly preceded US recessions.
How to read it
| Main line color | Range | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Green | 0% and below | Labor market improving |
| Orange | above 0 to below +25% | Unemployment rising |
| Red | from +25% | Strong rise |
The red coloring marks a rise of at least 25% from a year earlier, not the confirmation rule. The zero line is emphasized.
- Above zero, unemployment is rising. Historically, such a rise has preceded every US recession since 1950, but not every rise led to a recession.
- Above the 5-month average, the rise is accelerating; below it, it is fading.
- Below zero, unemployment is falling and the labor market is improving.
Good to know
- The previous high is a record of the whole series, not of the current cycle. Since April 2020 it has stood at +300% (the unemployment rate jumped from 3.7 to 14.8% within a year). The “below the high” condition therefore practically rules out only new record months; in everyday use, the zero line and the 5-month average decide.
- Each monthly value appears on the chart from the first of its reporting month, but it isn't published until the start of the following month. The most recent month is often missing at the right edge.
- If a month is missing from the statistics, the gap stays a gap and doesn't shift any comparison. There was no survey for October 2025 because of the US shutdown: that month and its year-over-year comparison in October 2026 stay empty, as does the 5-month average across the gap.
- Intended for daily and weekly charts. No settings other than the style.