GlossaryReal Yields Tracker
Real Yields Tracker
Shows the real yield on ten-year US government bonds, that is, the yield after inflation, together with the nominal yield and the difference between the two. The real yield is the benchmark for any asset without ongoing income, from gold to Bitcoin.
What is drawn
- Real yield: Yield on ten-year inflation-protected US government bonds (TIPS).
- Nominal yield: Yield on ten-year nominal US government bonds at constant maturity.
Both are daily values; over weekends and holidays the last one applies. The difference, nominal minus real, is the inflation the bond market is pricing in (breakeven rate).
The real yield is divided into four zones by the Alert threshold (default 0.5%), shown here with the default value:
| Zone | Range |
|---|---|
| Restrictive | from +0.5% |
| Slightly restrictive | 0 to +0.5% |
| Slightly stimulative | −0.5 to 0% |
| Stimulative | below −0.5% |
| Line | Color |
|---|---|
| 10Y real yield | by zone: red, orange, light green, green |
| 10Y nominal yield | blue |
| Nominal − Real | green, thin |
Reference lines are at plus and minus the alert threshold, with a bold zero line.
How to read it
- Above zero, safe government bonds earn a real return after inflation. Anyone holding an asset without interest gives that up, which is a headwind for gold and Bitcoin.
- Below zero, even bonds lose value in real terms. Assets without income become relatively more attractive.
- Direction counts: In 2022 the real yield rose from about −1% to over +1.5%; in the same period, risk assets fell sharply.
- Breaking down nominal moves: If the nominal yield rises because the difference rises, it is inflation expectations. If it rises because the real yield rises, money is actually getting more expensive. The second is much less pleasant for risk assets.
Good to know
- The difference is an approximation of inflation expectations. It also includes risk and liquidity premiums of inflation-protected bonds.
- US yields only. Intended for 1D to 1W.