Glossary% Supply in Profit
% Supply in Profit
What share of recent closing prices is at or below the current price? The study uses this as an approximation of the on-chain metric “percent supply in profit”: anyone who bought at one of these prices would now be in profit.
How to read it
| Zone | Range |
|---|---|
| Overheated | from 95% |
| Bull market | 75 to 95% |
| Neutral | 50 to 75% |
| Loss phase | 25 to 50% |
| Capitulation | below 25% |
Reference lines are at 25, 50, 75 and 95%. The area above 95% has a reddish background, the area below 25% a bluish one.
- Above 95%: The price is at the upper edge of its history in the window, and almost every buyer would be in profit. This increases the pressure from profit-taking and marks late phases of rallies.
- Below 25%: The price is in the lowest quarter of the closes in the window. Most buyers would be at a loss, the setting of capitulations.
- In a strong uptrend, the study reads 100% at every new high of the window and can stay above 95% for a long time. A value above 95% is therefore not a sell signal in itself.
Limitations
- Approximation: The price distribution is not the supply distribution. More coins sit at prices with heavy trading than at quiet ones, and coins last moved before the window are missing entirely. These old coins, mostly acquired cheaply, are almost always in profit. In deep bear markets, the approximation therefore usually falls faster and lower than the on-chain metric.
- Candles, not days: The window counts candles. On the weekly chart, 1,500 candles cover almost 29 years, practically the entire history; on short intervals, only a few months or weeks. Meant for 1D to 1W.
- At the start of the loaded history, the window is shorter than set, and the first values rest on little history.
- Bitcoin only.