Glossary4-year cycle
4-year cycle
Counts the calendar days since the last Bitcoin halving and shows next to it where previous cycles found their high and low. At its core, the study is a clock marked with past experience: it tells you where in the halving rhythm the market currently stands, not where it is heading.
On the chart
- Pane: The line is the cycle day on a fixed axis from 0 to 1500, colored by phase. The top and bottom windows are shaded as bands, and reference lines mark the years (365, 730, 1095, 1460).
- Price: For each cycle, the top window (red) and bottom window (blue) lie over the price as labeled time bands, and a gold ring marks the first candle of each epoch. On the right, the chart leaves space up to the next phase boundary, at most 160 candles.
How to read it
The study gives context, not a signal. If the market is in the top window, that is where all cycle highs have been so far; whether the current high has already happened or is still to come, it doesn't say. Combine it with a valuation (Drawdown, Rainbow, production cost) to see whether price and calendar fit together.
Limitations
- Few cases: Four highs and three lows are seven observations. Each new cycle can shift the windows, and there is no guarantee that the rhythm will hold.
- Bitcoin only: The study isn't available on other symbols.
- Interval: Intended for daily to weekly charts. On hourly candles, the same daily value stands across 24 candles.
- The only settings are for appearance.