GlossaryUSDT Dominance Score
USDT Dominance Score
The score measures how unusually high or low the USDT share of the crypto market currently is, measured against its own yearly average in standard deviations. A high value means an unusual amount of capital is waiting in USDT, which counts as bearish. A low value means the money is already in the market.
How to read it
The sign runs against the intuition “high is good”: positive values are red, negative ones green.
| Range | Rating |
|---|---|
| from +1.0 | Strongly bearish |
| +0.5 to +1.0 | Slightly bearish |
| −0.5 to +0.5 | Neutral |
| −1.0 to −0.5 | Slightly bullish |
| below −1.0 | Strongly bullish |
The color gets stronger in four intensities, with steps at 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5. The axis is fixed at −3.2 to +3.2, with reference lines at ±0.5, ±1.0 and ±1.5. From +1.0 the background is tinted red, below −1.0 green.
Why high dominance is bearish
USDT is pegged to the dollar, the rest of the market is not. The score is therefore largely a mirror image of the market: high values coincide with weak phases in which capital is parked in stablecoins. Low values coincide with strong phases in which it is invested. On top of that comes the growth of the USDT supply itself.
- Extreme values above +1.5: A lot of capital is on the sidelines. That can mean fear, but also buying power that is not yet in the market.
- Extreme values below −1.5: The USDT share is far below its yearly average; the market has run strongly in relative terms.
- Return to the zero line: Dominance is moving back toward its yearly average.
Good to know
- Timeframe: Intended for 1D, 4D and 1W. On hourly charts, the yearly window requires 8,760 candles, so the curve usually stays empty.
- Capping: Values beyond ±3 are cut off. That way, a single outlier does not flatten the rest of the history, but the curve does not show how far an extreme actually went.
- Relative to the last year: The score does not measure an absolute level. If dominance rises steadily for months, the window gets used to it and the score returns to zero.
- Other stablecoins: If USDC or other stablecoins gain market share, the USDT share falls without capital having left stablecoins.
- Smoothing: The average over 14 candles trails the raw value by a few candles.