IndicatorsMacro studies
Macro studies
The mantacharts studies on interest rates, inflation, the labor market, liquidity, dominance, and stablecoins, with zones, settings, and how to read them.
Under Top bar → Indicators → Macro, the macro panes are followed by the studies from mantacharts, in five groups: Market & rotation, Macro & liquidity, Cycle & valuation, Comparison series, and Levels & profiles.
Before you start
- Frequency: Most series are monthly, weekly, or daily values, so the studies are intended for daily and weekly charts. On shorter intervals, one value spans many candles.
- Delay: Monthly figures such as inflation, unemployment, industrial production, or money supply are dated to the reporting month but appear weeks later, so the latest month is often missing at the right edge.
- Approximations: If a study differs from the original it is based on, it says so in its name (“approximation”, “US approximation”, “4 of 5 components”).
- Style: Every study has the Study colors toggle and a Color in its Style tab.
Market & rotation
mantacharts: Asset correlation (gold)
How closely the symbol on the chart and gold move together over 90 periods, smoothed over 14 periods. It shows the strength of the relationship, not its direction. High values are the warning sign: what moves with everything else doesn't spread risk.
Zones: Very high correlation (75 and up), High (50 to 75), Medium (25 to 50), Low (below 25). Settings: Correlation window 90, Smoothing 14.
mantacharts Bitcoin Dominance Trend
Bitcoin's share of total crypto market cap against its own 200-day average. Above the line, capital tends to flow into Bitcoin; below it, into altcoins. The curve doesn't say whether the market is rising but who benefits from it. Setting: Average length (days) 200.
mantacharts: Stablecoin Suite (Bitcoin only)
Stablecoin capital relative to Bitcoin. The main line is the ratio of stablecoin to Bitcoin market cap, normalized to its own range over the last 200 days: high means a lot of capital waiting on the sidelines. The second line shows the inflow into stablecoins over 30 and 60 days.
Zones: High liquidity (above 0.7), Neutral (0.3 to 0.7), Little buying power (below 0.3). Intended for the daily chart.
mantacharts Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) (Bitcoin only)
Bitcoin's market cap divided by that of all dollar stablecoins, as a Z-score over 200 periods. A high value means Bitcoin has become expensive relative to the capital that could buy right away. A low value means a lot of buying power is ready. The denominator follows the usual definition of the SSR, so the raw value is comparable with other SSR charts.
Zones: Extremely high (+4σ and up), Overbought (+2 to +4σ), Neutral (−2 to +2σ), Oversold (−4 to −2σ), Extremely low (below −4σ). Settings: Z-Score window 200, Smoothing 3. Intended for the daily chart.
mantacharts: USDT.D Divergence (approximation)
The symbol's daily return minus the daily change in USDT's share of crypto capital, smoothed over 14 periods. Positive values mean the price is rising while capital leaves stablecoins. Both reflect the same risk appetite.
Zones: Clear outperformance (+1.0 and up) to Clear underperformance (below −1.0). Setting: Smoothing 14.
mantacharts: USDT Dominance Score
The Z-score of USDT dominance against its mean over the last 365 days, smoothed and capped at ±3σ. High means an unusual amount of capital is parked in stablecoins, which is considered bearish. Low means the money is already in the market.
Zones: Strongly bearish (+1.0 and up), Slightly bearish, Neutral (−0.5 to +0.5), Slightly bullish, Strongly bullish (below −1.0). Settings: Lookback (days) 365, Smoothing 14.
Macro & liquidity
Interest rates
| Study | What it shows | Zones and how to read them |
|---|---|---|
| mantacharts: FEDFUNDS | the effective US policy rate, monthly | Near zero (below 1%), Accommodative (1 to 3%), Restrictive (3 to 5%), Highly restrictive (5% and up). This study doesn't show the target range; “Policy rates” does. |
| mantacharts: Policy rates | the policy rates set by the Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan, and Reserve Bank of Australia | The US curve leads and is colored by zone (below 1%, 1 to 2.5%, 2.5 to 5%, 5% and up); the other three run alongside for comparison. For the Fed, the study draws the midpoint of the target range; the range itself appears as a number next to it. |
| mantacharts: US government bonds (yield curve) | all eleven maturities from 1 month to 30 years, with the 10-year drawn boldly | Long maturities normally sit above short ones. When the lines cross, the curve is inverted, which has preceded every US recession since 1970. |
| mantacharts: Yield curve | the ratio (5 × 10Y − 2Y) / (4 × 10Y) | Normal curve (1.02 and up), Flat curve (1.00 to 1.02), Inverted (below 1.00) |
| mantacharts: Real Yields Tracker | the real yield on 10-year inflation-protected bonds against the nominal yield, plus the difference as priced-in inflation | Restrictive (+0.5% and up), Slightly restrictive, Slightly stimulative, Stimulative (below −0.5%). Above zero, holding an asset that pays no interest costs real purchasing power. Settings: Correlation length 14, Alert threshold (%) 0.5. |
| mantacharts: Yen Carry Trade Watcher | the Fed funds rate against Japan's overnight interbank rate, monthly | Carry pays (0.10% and up), Thin margin (0 to 0.10%), Inverted (below 0%). When the spread turns, carry positions unwind, which often hits risk assets first. |
Inflation, labor market, economy
| Study | What it shows | Zones and how to read them |
|---|---|---|
| mantacharts: US consumer price index (CPI) | year-over-year, month-over-month, and core rates calculated the way the US Labor Department reports them, plus the annualized three-month rate | Deflation (below 0%), In target range (0 to 2.5%), Elevated (2.5 to 5%), Overheated (5% and up). The three-month rate shows the direction earlier than the annual rate. |
| mantacharts: Inflation Forecast | actual CPI inflation against the bond market's inflation expectation (10-year breakeven rate) and its 50-period average as a forecast | If the forecast line is below the actual rate, the market expects inflation to fall. Zones as for the CPI. |
| US unemployment rate | the rate as published monthly, plus the three-month average and its low of the last twelve months | Below 4% tight labor market, 4 to 5% near full employment, 5 to 6% loosening, 6% and up recession level. The gap between the average and the low is the Sahm rule: half a percentage point has signaled every recession since 1960. |
| mantacharts: UNRATE | the same rate year over year | An increase over the prior year has preceded every US recession since 1950. Red is the confirmation: above zero, above the 5-month average, and below the previous high. |
| mantacharts: US Macro Phase Score | a number from 0 to 1 made up of industrial production (30%), the labor market (25%), the yield curve (20%), and inflation's deviation from the 2% target (15%) | Expansion (0.75 and up), Neutral, Cooling, Recession risk (below 0.25). Setting: Smoothing (EMA) 6. A fifth component of the original is not included. |
| mantacharts: Global Economy Index (4 of 5 components) | the mean of the Z-scores of the inverted dollar index, the 10-year US yield, the copper/gold ratio, and crude oil | High risk (+1 and up) stands for a world economy running hot, Low risk (below −1) for cooling. Setting: Lead (months) 3. The fifth component of the original, the Baltic Dry Index, is not included. |
Liquidity and stress
| Study | What it shows | Zones and how to read them |
|---|---|---|
| mantacharts: QT/QE indicator (Fed balance sheet) | the weekly change in the Fed's total assets | Above zero, the balance sheet is growing (QE, liquidity flows in); below zero, it is shrinking (QT). Measured on total assets, which swing more in stress phases than the securities held alone. |
| mantacharts: M2 Delta (US M2) | the percentage price change minus the change in US money supply, smoothed over 100 days | Positive (“Discount”): the price is growing faster than money. Negative (“Premium”): more slowly. Setting: Smoothing (days) 100. |
| mantacharts: Liquidity Risk | financing conditions as a number from 0 (very loose) to 1 (very tight), from the policy rate, 2-year and 10-year yields, the real rate, the dollar, the Fed's balance sheet, and the high-yield spread | Very Tight (0.75 and up), Tight, Loose, Very Loose (up to 0.25). Describes the environment for risk assets, not their direction. Also usable on 1h and 4h. |
| mantacharts: US Bond Market Stress Tracker | a stress index from 0 to 100 made up of the inverted yield curve (40%), inflation (35%), the VIX (15%), and the volatility of the 10-year yield (10%), with the components as thin lines | High stress (above 75), Moderate (50 to 75), Calm (below 50). The components show where the stress is coming from. Setting: Alert threshold 75. |
| mantacharts: BloodBath Indicator (approximation) | the ratio of the short-term US rate to an assumed high-yield spread, against its 100-week average | Above the average, money is getting more expensive faster than the risk premium can bear. Approximation: the Fed funds rate stands in for the 3-month yield, and the spread is a fixed assumed yield. At a rate of 6% and up, the formula loses its meaning. Setting: HYG yield (%) 6. |
Cycle & valuation
mantacharts: BTC Fear & Greed Index (Bitcoin only)
The crypto Fear & Greed Index with zones: Extreme greed (75 and up), Greed (56 and up), Neutral (45 and up), Fear (25 and up), Extreme fear (below 25). If the index isn't available at the moment, the study draws a self-calculated momentum component instead and says so in the title. The settings SMA length (125) and Smoothing (3) apply to this substitute.
mantacharts: BTC Ultimate Signal Indicator (Bitcoin only)
Three components in one pane: the Trendfinder's trend signal (main line), the Short-Term Risk Score, and the Z-score of the Stablecoin Supply Ratio. A buy or sell signal only appears when all three trigger on the same candle. That makes the signals very rare.
Zones: Buy signal active, Trend up, Trend down, Sell signal active. Settings: Cooldown (bars) 2, SSR length 200, SSR smoothing 3. The trend signal needs about 3,000 candles of lead-in; on short ranges, it stays empty.
mantacharts DCA Performance Tool
Performance since January 1, 2015, with all series normalized to 100: the symbol on the chart against the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and the purchasing power of the dollar (measured by money supply growth). Above 100, a series is above its starting level.
Setting: Monthly installment ($) 100. The portfolio value is the sum of all installments times the performance since the start, so it's closer to a lump-sum investment at the starting price than true dollar-cost averaging. Each comparison series begins where its data begins.
Comparison series
These studies lay an external series over the price. It is fitted into the visible price range: what counts is the path, not the level. You can see the series' actual value at the crosshair in the legend.
| Study | What it shows | Settings (default) |
|---|---|---|
| mantacharts: GOLD Overlay | the gold price (front-month future) | none |
| mantacharts: M2 Overlay (US M2, 90-day lead) | the US money supply, shifted forward by 90 days because liquidity often leads the price by a quarter | Lead (days) 90 |
| mantacharts: Custom Symbol Overlay | an external series on a log scale, preset to the US money supply M2, moved forward by 90 days | Time offset (days) 90, Divisor 1,000,000,000 |
| mantacharts: Global Liquidity | the balance sheets of the Fed (minus the Treasury account and reverse repo), ECB, and Bank of Japan in trillions of dollars, plus the US money supply M2 and the twelve-month average | none |
| mantacharts: Global Liquidity Index (US approximation) | US money supply M2 plus the Fed's balance sheet in trillions of dollars, with a twelve-month average | Apply lead off, Lead (days) 90, Yearly rate (YoY %) instead of level off |
How to read them: Over months and quarters, not days. When a liquidity aggregate is above its twelve-month average, liquidity is expanding; below it, liquidity is contracting.
Levels & profiles
mantacharts Recession Indicator
Looks for the classic leading combination of a US recession: the yield curve (10 years minus 2 years) turns back from inversion into positive territory, and the smoothed policy rate starts to fall. If the two events are at most two months apart, the signal counts as triggered. On the price, the study then marks the following twelve months as a red-shaded “Recession” area. Detection runs on monthly values, regardless of your chart's interval. No settings other than style.